Piero Birello
Surveillance-based estimates of the reproductive number may be biased in spatially structured populations.
Rel. Luca Dall'Asta, Eugenio Valdano. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Physics Of Complex Systems (Fisica Dei Sistemi Complessi), 2022
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Abstract
The early evolution of an outbreak of an infectious disease epidemic depends on its reproductive number R: the average number of secondary cases that a case generates. An accurate and timely estimate of the reproductive number is crucial to make projections on the near-future evolution of the epidemic, and to set up the appropriate public health response. Estimates of R often come from surveillance data, as it has been in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic. This means statistically inferring R from time series of daily reported cases, hospitalizations, or deaths. In this study, however, we argue that surveillance-based measures of the reproductive number may not always be accurate measures of the true reproductive number.
We focus on structured populations, i.e., populations made up of spatially distinct communities
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