Enrico Agrippino
Time-series forecasting: Air GDS bookings prediction.
Rel. Gianluca Mastrantonio. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Ingegneria Matematica, 2022
Abstract
During my internship as a data analyst at Amadeus, I developed a forecasting project for Air GDS bookings time-series. GDS (Global Distribution System) is a digital system enabling flight tickets bookings for travel agencies. The main aspects of the project are the high number of time-series to analyse and forecast and the huge impact that Covid pandemic had on data. After analysing data, I applied two different models, one requiring more expertise in time-series modeling, and the second one accessible also to analysts with less mathematical and statistical background: SARIMAX and Prophet. SARIMAX is a statistic regression model with residuals modeled as Seasonal ARIMA time-series.
I studied a different model for each time-series, validating them both with statistical tests and with the error on the validation data set using a three months horizon forecast
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