Valeria Nanotti
How has evolution shaped our decision making? A Neural Network Agent Based Model for the development of heuristics.
Rel. Luca Dall'Asta, Matteo Giuliani, Didier Sornette. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Physics Of Complex Systems (Fisica Dei Sistemi Complessi), 2020
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Abstract
This work focuses on understanding how evolutionary forces, in a complex environment, have shaped the human decision making processes. Within the field of choice under uncertainty, it is experimentally observed that people tend to make irrational and/or controversial choices (e.g. Allais Paradox, Ellesberg Paradox), adopting simple heuristics rather than following rational principles established by the expected utility framework. Through this project, we aim to retrieve such observed irrational preferences as an evolutionary emergent phenomenon. Specifically, the environment we live in is extremely complex, often characterized by highly non-linear and time-evolving conditions. Evolutionary forces, both exogenous (environment) and endogenous (group interaction), made our ancestors develop certain heuristics, which everyday help us taking quick and efficient decisions.
The hypothesis we would like to prove is that these "mental shortcuts" work optimally in a real-world-complexity scenario, but only sub-optimally in abstract and oversimplified laboratory setups, leading to the emergence of irrational choice patterns and paradoxes
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