Claudio Ascione
A machine learning approach to musical success prediction and genre emergence.
Rel. Alessandro Pelizzola, Giulio Prevedello. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Physics Of Complex Systems (Fisica Dei Sistemi Complessi), 2022
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Abstract
In the past years, Spotify and YouTube have been dominating the music production scene, thus storing valuable information about how songs achieve popularity and become a successful hit. Past researches tried to determine the hit-potentiality focusing on the audio characteristics and showed the limitation of this approach. In this work, we studied popularity dynamics of songs including, together with audio characteristics, features from artist and release context, and processed these using machine learning techniques. As metrics for popularity, we employed the cumulative views on YouTube achieved by a song's video in this streaming platform. First, we investigated the relationship between songs with similar audio feature and their release date to identify sub-genres with concomitant popularity.
Then, we processed our data by fitting the songs' popularity, ranked by their followers' number on Spotify, using a Zipf's model to provide a reference for a song's success accounting for the fame previously achieved by its artist
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