Pietro Scapolo
Contact frequency in multilayer agent-based epidemic models.
Rel. Alfredo Braunstein, Vittoria Colizza, Chiara Poletto. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Physics Of Complex Systems (Fisica Dei Sistemi Complessi), 2026
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has renewed the demand for quantitative models capable of describing the spread of respiratory pathogens in structured human populations, and of supporting public-health decisions on non-pharmaceutical interventions in real time. The accuracy of these models depends on how faithfully they represent the contacts through which the pathogen is transmitted. The simplest representation, introduced by Kermack and McKendrick almost a century ago , assumes that every individual mixes homogeneously with every other and reduces the dynamics of an outbreak to a small system of ordinary differential equations on population-level compartments. This assumption is plainly violated in real populations, where contact patterns depend strongly on the age of the individuals involved, on the setting in which they meet, and on the regularity with which they encounter each other.
A first generation of refinements addressed the age dependence by stratifying the compartmental equations and weighting them through the empirical contact matrices reported bydiary-based surveys, ofwhich POLYMOD and its French counterpart CoMeS-F are the standard references
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