Performance Evaluation and Capacity Planning of Port-Hinterland Transport Chains with System Dynamics Modeling: Analysis of the Railway Network

This thesis investigates the efficiency of the internal rail network within a multi-modal Italian port through a System Dynamics model developed in Vensim PLE. The case study focuses primarily on flows of trains, while also integrating the road network to analyze its critical impact of their interdependence and at-grade crossings. The goal is to assess the railway system’s capacity and operational bottlenecks during normal and disruptive conditions, and to address its resilience to demand growth. The key findings demonstrate that the system’s bottlenecks originate in shared sections of the railway that communicate each of the terminals, and in conflict points with the road network, which result in significant backpressure and a cascading delay and lead potentially to a system-wide gridlock. The model serves as a strategic tool for evaluating the port’s network resilience and for analyzing the impact of potential interventions at infrastructural or operational levels.