Seyedmohammadamin Aziminasrabad
Optimizing Construction Cost Predictions A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms.
Rel. Timur Narbaev. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Ingegneria Edile, 2024
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Abstract
Accurate cost forecasting is vital in construction project management, where budget overruns and delays can have significant impacts. Traditional methods like Earned Value Management (EVM) are widely used, but they rely on static, linear assumptions that often fail to capture the complexities of real-world projects. This thesis explores the potential of machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve cost forecasting by addressing the limitations of EVM and offering more dynamic, data-driven predictions during project execution. A comparative analysis of six machine learning models—XGBoost, Extremely Randomized Trees, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)—was conducted using a dataset of 90 real-world construction projects, selected from 181 initial projects.
Key project performance metrics, such as Actual Cost (AC), Earned Value (EV), and the Cost Performance Index (CPI), were used as inputs, along with newly introduced features: Project Regularity (RI) and Project Seriality (SP)
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