Therefore, an earthquake could be potentially more dangerous when hits a global city. Among them, Istanbul is a megalopolis characterized by one of the highest level of seismic risk in the world :

• by the 2030, it could be hit by a big shock (Magnitude 7 or more) with a 62±15% probability;

• more than 50% of Istanbul inhabitants live in irregular and squatter buildings characterized by precarious structural and functional conditions;

• it is the economic and financial capital of Turkey, an important attractive node of population (in Istanbul live officially more than 13 million of people) and national-international activities and capitals.

Inside each mega-cities, there are several neighborhoods with particular vulnerabilities. They could be characterized by a high density of residential population, economic activities, public services, etc. If they are seriously damaged due to a seismic event, for example, the consequences might have an impact not only at urban scale but probably also at national scale.

Therefore, in this thesis, the seismic risk has been evaluated for one of the numerous highly vulnerable Istanbul’s areas. The zone analyzed is part of the old and historic neighborhood of Pera/Galata: it is a kind of “buffer” around İstiklal Caddesi, famous pedestrian street, which is being visited by nearly 3 million people during the weekends, according to unofficial sources. Furthermore, it is characterized by an important historical, cultural and architectonical heritage and it is the location of several economic activities and public facilities.

In particular, the seismic risk has been assessed confronting two different approaches: one traditional and one experimental (which has been elaborated in this research). The principal differences between them are the temporal dimension (static/dynamic during the day), the exposure (residents/city users) and the vulnerability (general factors/specific factors characterizing the case study area).

So, the case study area, marked by a low level of seismic risk according to the traditional approach, results be at middle-high risk according to the experimental approach. The difference in the evaluation is not due to the hazard component (in both cases not so much relevant) but rather to the specific peculiarities of the urban environment which increase notably the vulnerability: first of, the high presence of city users, not resident in the case study area, during 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Indeed, the city users do not know very well the zone and, so, their continuative high presence increases the vulnerability as well as the exposure value.

Assessed the seismic risk, some mitigation actions have been proposed and, in particular, an evacuation-mitigation plan has been predisposed for the case study area. If adequately developed and publicized, it would guarantee the reduction of casualties during and in the aftermath the seismic shock.

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Fenomeni naturali come uragani, eruzioni vulcaniche, terremoti, etc., minacciano sempre più frequentemente comunità umane di tutto il mondo generando grandi disastri. I sismi sono tra i più catastrofici di questi fenomeni: senza preavviso e in pochi secondi, infatti, possono scuotere profondamente gli insediamenti antropici causando numerose vittime, modificando il paesaggio e cancellando il patrimonio storico-culturale. A loro volta, questi effetti diretti possono determinare altre conseguenze secondarie non meno gravi, come la distruzione di attività economiche e di servizi di pubblica utilità, il generarsi di problemi psico-sociali, etc.

Gli effetti di un terremoto quindi sono potenzialmente più pericolosi quando colpiscono una megalopoli. Tra queste, Istanbul è caratterizzata da uno dei più elevati livelli di rischio sismico al mondo, in quanto:

• potrebbe essere colpita da una forte scossa (Magnitudo 7 o più) con una probabilità del 62±15% entro il 2030;

• più del 50% degli abitanti vive in edifici costruiti illegalmente, caratterizzati da precarie condizioni strutturali e funzionali;

• è la capitale economico-finanziaria della Turchia, importante polo attrattore di popolazione (ufficialmente vivono ad Istanbul più di 13 milioni di persone), di attività e capitali nazionali ed internazionali.

All’interno di ogni megalopoli vi sono diverse aree di vitale e cruciale importanza per l’elevata concentrazione di attività economiche, attrezzature pubbliche, popolazione, etc., il cui eventuale danneggiamento, a causa per esempio di un evento sismico, potrebbe avere ripercussioni non solamente riscontrabili a livello urbano, ma probabilmente anche a scala nazionale.

Pertanto, nella tesi di laurea elaborata, è stato calcolato il rischio sismico per una delle numerose aree “sensibili” di Istanbul. La zona analizzata è parte del vecchio e storico quartiere di Pera/Galata: una sorta di “buffer” attorno alla famosa via pedonale İstiklal Caddesi che, secondo stime non ufficiali, viene visitata da circa 3 milioni di persone durante il fine settimana. L’area è inoltre caratterizzata da un importante patrimonio storico-culturale ed architettonico, dalla presenza di diverse attività economiche e servizi e di attrezzature pubbliche.

In particolare, il rischio sismico è stato calcolato confrontando un approccio tradizionale con un metodo sperimentale elaborato in questa ricerca. Le principali differenze tra i due metodi riguardano la dimensione temporale (invariabilità/variabilità nel corso del giorno), esposizione (popolazione residente/city users) e vulnerabilità (fattori generali/fattori specifici dell’area di studio).

In questo modo, l’area di studio, a basso rischio sismico secondo l’approccio tradizionale, è risultata essere a medio-alto rischio sismico secondo l’approccio sperimentale. Su questo risultato incide non tanto la componente pericolosità, in entrambi i casi non particolarmente rilevante, bensì le specifiche caratteristiche dell’ambiente urbano analizzato che ne incrementano notevolmente la vulnerabilità: in primis, l’elevata frequentazione dell’area, 24 ore su 24 e 7 giorni su 7, da parte di popolazione non residente. Infatti, considerato che generalmente i city users conoscono poco la zona, la loro cospicua presenza aumenta la vulnerabilità oltre che incrementare il valore dell’esposizione.

Calcolato il rischio sismico, alcune azioni sono state proposte e, in particolare, un piano di evacuazione-mitigazione è stato predisposto per l’area di studio. Se adeguatamente sviluppato e pubblicizzato, esso consentirebbe la riduzione del numero delle vittime durante e dopo la scossa sismica.

2.1 Natural disasters. p.4

2.1.1 Earthquakes. p.13

2.1.1.1 Predicting and assessing earthquakes. p.18

2.2 The risk. p.20

2.2.1 Seismic risk. p.30

2.2.1.1 Seismic hazard. p.31

2.2.1.2 Seismic vulnerability. p.33

CHAPTER 3 - THE GENERAL AND HISTORICAL BACKGROUND. p.37

3.1 Turkey. p.37

3.2 Istanbul. p.59

3.2.1 The history and development of Istanbul with a particular look at the Beyoğlu district. p.71

3.3 Natural disasters in Turkey. p.93

3.3.1 The major earthquakes in Istanbul since 1500 . p.101

3.3.2 Future earthquakes. p.120

CHAPTER 4 - SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT: THE CASE STUDY OF ISTANBUL. p.123

4.1 The framework of the case study area. p.124

4.2 Seismic risk assessment, theoretical method. p.147

4.2.1 Hazard scenarios for Istanbul and for the case study area. p.149

4.2.2 Vulnerabilities for Istanbul and for the case study area. p.152

4.2.2.1 Physical vulnerability. p.152

4.2.2.2 Functional vulnerability. p.162

4.2.2.3 Socio-demographic vulnerability. p.164

4.2.2.4 Economic vulnerability. p.168

4.2.3 Seismic risk assessment for Istanbul and for the case study area. p.170

4.3 Seismic risk assessment, experimental method. p.177

4.3.1 Vulnerability of the case study area‘s urban structure. p.179

4.3.1.1 Physical and systemic vulnerability in the case study area. p.179

4.3.1.2 Potentialities. p.196

4.3.1.3 Urban structure vulnerability assessment. p.200

4.3.2 Functional vulnerability of the case study area. p.203

4.3.3 Socio-demographic vulnerability in the case study area. p.205

4.3.3.1 Description of the exposed population. p.206

4.3.3.1.1 "Residents". p.206

4.3.3.1.2 "Offices worker and customers". p.210

4.3.3.1.3 "Services worker and customers". p.210

4.3.3.1.4 "Facilities worker and customers". p.210

4.3.3.1.5 "Restoration workers and customers". p.210

4.3.3.1.6 "Nightlife workers and customers". p.211

4.3.3.1.7 "Shopping workers and customers". p.211

4.3.3.1.8 "Tourists". p.211

4.3.3.2 The "temporal dynamism" of the exposed population categories. p.216

4.3.3.2.1 "Residents". p.219

4.3.3.2.2 "Offices worker and customers". p.220

4.3.3.2.3 "Services worker and customers". p.221

4.3.3.2.4 "Facilities workers and customers". p.222

4.3.3.2.5 "Restoration workers and customers" p.223

4.3.3.2.6 "Nightlife workers and customers". p.224

4.3.3.2.7 "Shopping workers and customers". p.225

4.3.3.2.8 "Tourists". p.226

4.3.3.2.9 Assessing the population exposed. p.228

4.3.3.3 Assessing the socio-demographic vulnerability. p.234

4.3.4 The economic fragility of the case study area. p.244

4.3.5 Seismic hazard in the case study area. p.245

4.3.6 Seismic risk assessment of the case study area. p.246

4.4 Concluding remarks. p.250

CHAPTER 5 - SOLUTIONS PROPOSED AND CONCLUSIONS. p.255

5.1 Turkish Civil Protection framework. p.256

5.2 Preparatory measures undertaken for Istanbul. p.257

5.3 Preparatory measures proposed for Istanbul. p.260

5.4 Discussion of the hypotheses mentioned in the introduction. p.269

5.5 Contribution of the research. p.270

APPENDIX A - MODIFIED MERCALLI, PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION AND REICTHER SCALES. p.272

APPENDIX B - INSPECTION-SURVEY‘S FORM USED. p.273

REFERENCES. p.274

WEBSITE CONSULTED. p.285

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WEBSITE CONSULTED

AKOM, Istanbul Disaster Coordination Center (Consulted on: June 27, 2012): http://www.ibb.gov.tr/sites/akom/Documents/AKOM_STUDIES_ON_DISASTER_PREPAREDNESS.pdf;

Beyoglu Municipality (Consulted on: March 22, 2012): http://en.beyoglu.bel.tr/;

Booking – an on-line reservation website (Consulted on: February 9, 2012): www.booking.com;

C.I.A. The World Factbook (Consulted on: March 22, 2012): https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tu.html;

Columbia University – Earth Institue (Consulted on: March 18, 2012): http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/tamam/tamam-background/the-north-anatolian-fault;

Engineering Consultancy Services (Consulted on: June 12, 2012): www.beca.com;

Ensure Project (Consulted on: April 22, 2012): http://www.ensureproject.eu/What%20is%20ensure_extended%20version.pdf;

European Environment Agency (Consulted on: June 12, 2012): http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer/countries/tr/soertopic_view?topic=land;

FAO (Consulted on: April 15, 2012): http://faostat.fao.org/site/550/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=550#ancor;

Fatih Municipality (Consulted on: June 12, 2012): http://www.fatih.bel.tr/changelang.asp?lang=2;

General Directorate of Civil Registration and Nationality (Consulted on: June 22, 2012): http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=10736;

Geographicus Fine Antique maps (Consulted on: April 12, 2012): http://www.geographicus.com/;

INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geologia e Vulcanologia / the Italian National Institute of Geology and Volcanology (Consulted on: March 29, 2012):

http://legacy.ingv.it/roma/attivita/sismologia/sismotettonica/sismomedi/medor.html;

International Monetary Fund (Consulted on: May 05, 2012): http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm;

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Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (Consulted on: June 25, 2012): http://www.ibb.gov.tr/sites/akom/Documents/_root.swf;

New York Times (Consulted on: between April 02 and 28, 2012):

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/02/14/science/earth/022510_QUAKE_index.html;

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/02/14/science/earth/022510_QUAKE_2.html;

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/02/14/science/earth/022510_QUAKE_3.html;

www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/02/14/science/earth/022510_QUAKE_6.html);

Prevention Web (Consulted on: March 22, 2012): http://www.preventionweb.net/files/12840_anewchangeEN.pdf;

Protezione Civile /Italian Civil Protection (Consulted on: Jun 26, 2012): http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/cms/attach/liguria_linee_guida.pdf;

Sokrates Program “The Historical Jewels in our Region” (Consulted on: April, 02, 2012): http://sokrates.szm.com/turkey/country.html;

Turkish Disaster and Emercency Management Presidency (Consulted on: June 28, 2012): http://www.afad.gov.tr/Ingilizce_Site/index.html;

United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (Consulted on: April 10, 2012): http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/slabs.html;

University of Texas at Austin (Consulted on: March 22, 2012): http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/turkey.html;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): http://www.kanyak.com/seismic.html;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): http://istanbulgezentisi.blogspot.com/2010/07/cadde-i-kebir.html;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): http://maggieblanck.com/Azarian/Photos.html;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): http://www.kizilay.org.tr/english/index.php;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): www.painetworks.com;