Markov Chain Model for Football Analytics
Emanuele Formento
Markov Chain Model for Football Analytics.
Rel. Enrico Bibbona. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Ingegneria Matematica, 2022
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Abstract
This work arises from a thesis proposal launched by the company Deltatre, whose objective is to extract through a Markov chain model key performance indicators of a team or a player from the data collection carried out on a football competition. Each match is modeled as a Markov chain with suitable states and transitions. The Markov chain theory is used to create the model, while other mathematical tools as chi-square distribution and confidence intervals are used to check the goodness of results. The creation of statistics is inspired by the expected threat theory introduced by Karun Singh. The data preprocessing begins with understanding the data available and those useful for analysis: the most important are the ball position and the player and the team in ball possession, but also other information is used, as the type of event and the phase of the match.
Then the states defining the model are choosen, composed by field areas plus two additional states, the goal and the lost ball; the number of field states depends on the subdivisions on both sides of the field, creating a m × n grid which can be represented using blurred and defined heatmaps
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