Carmelo Riccardo Civello
Markovian modeling and simulations for the cost-public health return analysis of prevention campaigns.
Rel. Fabio Fagnani, Giacomo Como. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Ingegneria Matematica, 2021
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Abstract
??Smoking and sedentary lifestyle make individuals more susceptible to certain diseases, thus negatively affecting the quality of life and life expectancy of the population, and ultimately resulting in a higher healthcare expenditure. The ultimate aim of this study is to quantify in the short/medium term the effects of a prevention policy that reduces exposure to such risk factors of the Italian population. We consider the cost of each prevention policy, and associate an economic cost to every year of life lost due to the disease (YLL) and every year lived with disability (YLD). We then compare a baseline scenario with each prevention scenario (in which a prevention policy is implemented), and estimate the net benefits achieved by each prevention policy.\\ We model the evolution of individuals by independent Markov chains whose state spaces describe the exposition to risk factors and the health of the individuals.
We focus on five tracer diseases (lung cancer, stroke, myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes) which are responsible for a large fraction of YLL and YLD attributable to smoking and sedentary lifestyle
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