Predictability Index
Iman Fozveh
Predictability Index.
Rel. Alberto De Marco. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Ingegneria Gestionale (Engineering And Management), 2020
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Abstract
This study proposes to evaluate cost and schedule performance based on the early and accurate prediction of final outcomes, as opposed to the prevalent and reactive evaluation of final cost and schedule deviations at completion. Getting to know early in the delivery process the actual outcomes of a project enables project and corporate managers to undertake informed and proactive actions in a timely manner. The ability to timely forecast accurate project outcomes is fundamental in an industry marked by endemic cost and schedule deviations. Indeed, owners and contractors alike make key strategic decisions about individual projects and capital investment programs alike based on forecasted values.
As a departure from current cost and schedule assessments solely based on deviations at completion, this study introduces the Predictability Index, a novel performance metric that also considers the project team’s ability to timely predict outcomes at completion
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