A TCO assessment of battery-electric trucks in the European market

The urgent need to curb greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) in Europe necessitates a transition toward zero-emission technologies. The goal of this study is to determine if zero-emission HDVs—in particular, Class 5 long-haul tractor trucks—are economically feasible by thoroughly examining all factors related to total cost of ownership (TCO). HDVs continue to contribute significantly to CO2 emissions despite international efforts; in the EU, they account for about 25% of emissions from road transport. According to the most recent provisional agreement between the European Parliament and the Council on CO2 emission standards for HDVs, manufacturers will have to cut emissions by 45% by 2030, 65% by 2035, and 90% by 2040, relative to 2019 levels in order to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Promising alternatives include a range of zero-emission technologies, such as electric road systems, fuel-cell electric trucks, and battery-electric trucks. Recent years have seen a sharp increase in the sales of electric commercial vehicles, fueled by demand growth, regulatory initiatives, and incentive programs. Large-scale adoption of these alternative technologies is hampered by ongoing doubts about their economic feasibility. By assessing the TCO of zero-emission HDVs, this study seeks to overcome these ambiguities. TCO analysis takes into account variables like energy prices, governmental regulations, and operating costs in addition to the original purchase price. The TCO model employed in this study encompasses various factors, including fixed costs (purchase cost, incentives, registration tax, and residual value) and operational costs (maintenance costs, energy costs, road tolls, and ownership tax). Our study stands out from others due to its thorough methodology, which also offers a more sophisticated understanding of the economic effects of zero-emission HDVs. In addition, the countries chosen for examination comply with the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) standards, guaranteeing thorough coverage and giving precedence to the nations with the greatest quantity of electric cars and charging stations. This broad spectrum of nations sets our study apart and enables a more thorough evaluation of economic viability. Analysis reveals that all countries—aside from Greece—are expected to see zero-emission Class 5 trucks reach price parity with diesel trucks by 2030. Notably, significant incentives are provided for battery electric trucks by nations like Sweden, the Netherlands, and France, which hastens the achievement of cost parity. On the other hand, Hungary, Greece, Spain, and Italy are not as good at offering these kinds of incentives. To achieve TCO parity, government policies—in particular, subsidies and toll reductions—appear to be essential catalysts. Policymakers and stakeholders can create focused policies to encourage the adoption of zero-emission HDVs and so contribute to a more sustainable transport sector in Europe by utilizing the findings from this study. This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the study's aims, scope, and key findings, underscoring the importance of addressing economic feasibility concerns in accelerating the transition to zero-emission HDVs.