The role of offshore wind power in Italy in 2050 according to highRES model

This master thesis uses the model highRES, an high spatial and temporal resolution power system model, to analyze the role of offshore wind power for the Italian electricity system in 2050. Three different scenarios projected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) are simulated: Stated Policies scenario, which represents the possible development in case the present situation stays, Announced Pledges scenario, which considers the case according to the Paris Agreement are respected, i.e. keeping global temperature rise below 2 °C, and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050, that represents the best case in terms of global emissions. These scenarios are analyzed considering a demand equal to the present and with an increase of 30%. Results show a combination of different technologies: solar, wind onshore, wind offshore, nuclear, natural gas and RoR hydroelectricity for the power production and hydro reservoir and batteries for the storage system. The technology preferred by the model is found to be solar, but the lower the cost becomes, the more wind offshore contributes to the system. At the same time, nuclear and wind onshore are completely ignored by the model. Results also include import and export data, which are found to give a small contribution to the total system, and storage usage, necessary for an high level of renewable in an electricity generation infrastructure, and curtailment data, that is the reduction of the power output necessary to adapt to the demand. Curtailment, like storage, represents a characteristic practice of renewable energy. Model outputs are then compared with the real situation and with the PNIEC (Piano Nazionale Integrato per l'Energia e per il Clima) projections. This comparison shows a discrepancy between results and projections, but this has to be traced back to the own nature of highRES, i.e. a linear optimization model. In particular power production relies too much on one technology and import and export have a too little impact. Considerations to improve the study are also presented and the main point is adjusting the model to represent just one country, in this case Italy. This represents the future use of highRES, in fact it has already been done for UK and a project for Norway is in progress.