Giuseppe Gullotti
From Rule-Based to Data-Driven Approaches for Origin–Destination Matrix Construction.
Rel. Cristina Pronello. Politecnico di Torino, Master of science program in Physics Of Complex Systems, 2026
Abstract
In today’s public transport landscape, operators are increasingly required to optimise services with limited resources, making data-driven approaches essential for evidence-based decision making. Automated Fare Collection (AFC) systems, installed on public transport vehicles, provide a continuous and reliable source of information on passenger trips, providing the basis for a detailed understanding of mobility patterns at both individual and network levels. The objective of this thesis is to construct Origin–Destination (OD) matrices from AFC data collected in a province of the Piedmont region, and to evaluate the performance of different estimation approaches applied to the same dataset. First, a deterministic method based on the Trip-Chain Model is implemented under the common assumption that only boarding data are available, reflecting the limitations of many real-world AFC systems.
The resulting OD estimates are then validated against complete entry–exit data to assess the model’s reliability
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