Zhihao Zhou
A Comparison of Statistical and Machine Learning Models for Trip Purpose Prediction.
Rel. Cristina Pronello. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Digital Skills For Sustainable Societal Transitions, 2026
Abstract
GPS-based travel surveys are increasingly used to study how people travel, but they record only where and when each trip takes place, not its purpose. Yet trip purpose is a key input to activity-based travel-demand models and to transport planning, so it has to be predicted from the recorded data before such a survey can be used. The objective of this thesis is to establish what matters more for this prediction: the type of model used, or the information available at the moment the prediction is made. To this end, three statistical and machine-learning models, a multinomial logit model, LightGBM and TabPFN, are compared on the TimeUse+ panel, a four-week GPS travel survey of 1,318 residents in Switzerland (207,683 training and 52,223 test trip legs).
They are evaluated under five nested information scenarios that progressively add sociodemographic, built-environment and retrospective trip-chain information to a set of basic trip features
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