Almujtba Izzeldin Elbashir Suliman
A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Automatic Passenger Counting Error Correction.
Rel. Cristina Pronello. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Digital Skills For Sustainable Societal Transitions, 2026
Abstract
Automatic passenger counting (APC) systems underpin public transport planning and financing, yet a persistent gap separates their advertised accuracy from their field performance, with deployed systems often achieving occupancy accuracy far below vendor claims. This thesis develops a Bayesian hierarchical framework for correcting APC inaccuracy, applying it to three sensors across two Italian cities: a Wi-Fi sensor and a camera in Turin, and a Wi-Fi sensor in Asti. Each model represents the sensor error with a robust Student-t likelihood and partial pooling across stops, routes, trips, and hours, producing not a point correction alone but a calibrated predictive interval. The models are evaluated both in distribution and, critically, on held-out routes never used during training.
The framework reduced the mean absolute counting error from 8.45 to 5.13 passengers for the Turin Wi-Fi sensor, from 5.30 to 3.47 for the camera, and from 5.82 to 5.14 for the Asti Wi-Fi sensor, while maintaining predictive intervals whose empirical coverage matched their nominal level
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