Atefeh Golshan
Forecasting Post-Consumer Textile Waste at EU National and NUTS2 Levels.
Rel. Andrea Tuni. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Ingegneria Gestionale (Engineering And Management), 2026
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Abstract
Forecasting Post-Consumer Textile Waste at EU National and NUTS2 Levels The transition toward a circular economy has prioritized the management of post-consumer textile waste (PCTW) within the European Union. However, fragmented data and inconsistent collection frameworks limit effective policy implementation, particularly ahead of the 2025 separate collection mandate under the Waste Framework Directive (WFD). This study aims to estimate PCTW generation and collection requirements across the EU-27 at both national and NUTS2 regional levels up to the year 2035. To address the inherent uncertainties in waste flow forecasting, a six-step hybrid framework was developed. The methodology integrates macroeconomics statistics (PRODCOM and COMEXT) for 194 finished textile products and employs apparent consumption reconciliation alongside Dynamic Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis (DPMFA).
Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations) were utilized to account for product lifetime variabilities, and a spatial downscaling approach using household disposable income and population was applied to map national aggregates to regional resolutions
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