Mattia Petri
Estimation of Design Rainfall under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Trieste.
Rel. Paola Mazzoglio, Pierluigi Claps. Politecnico di Torino, Master of science program in Environmental And Land Engineering, 2026
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Abstract
The intensification of the hydrological cycle driven by anthropogenic warming represents a critical challenge for the resilience of civil infrastructure. Traditional hydraulic design, based on the assumption of climate stationarity, is increasingly proving to be inadequate to correctly represent the future frequency of extreme weather events. This thesis develops future Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in Trieste, utilizing the VHR-PRO_IT Convection-Permitting Model (CPM) at a 2.2 km spatial resolution. Future IDF curves were derived based on the Gumbel distribution, averaging the results obtained with both Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and L-Moments. Results indicate a significant intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes: for a 10-year return period, rainfall intensity is projected to increase by approximately +60% (RCP 4.5) and +64% (RCP 8.5) compared to the historical baseline.
The hydraulic analysis revealed that the existing network would fail in approximately 50% of pipe sections under these conditions
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