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A Bayesian Framework for Distributed Mean Estimation with Adaptive Network Topology.
Rel. Emilio Leonardi, Franco Galante. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Data Science And Engineering, 2025
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Abstract
This thesis introduces Dynamic Bayesian Mean Estimation (DBME), a decentralized probabilistic framework for distributed mean estimation in networked multi-agent systems. The framework is designed for scenarios where a set of agents, each collecting local observations, cooperatively infer a shared latent quantity while communicating only with their neighbors. DBME offers an alternative to consensus and PAC-based methods by expressing distributed inference through a probabilistic formulation that explicitly represents uncertainty. Each agent maintains a parametric belief whose dynamics follow Bayesian principles of evidence accumulation and variance contraction. Nodes start from a bootstrap prior encoding an empirical or subjective belief about their local mean.
As observations are collected, these beliefs are updated incrementally and fused with neighborhood information via the product of Gaussian likelihoods
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