Predicting Dominant Designs: A Multi-Criteria Approach to Innovation Strategy

Recent literature on innovation management has focused on the “fluid” phase of the technological lifecycle. In this context, the main managerial issue is associated to the identification of emerging paradigms, defined as the ‘best’ match between the most promising variants of an emerging and still progressing technology and the most value-creating application areas. The thesis aims at developing a structured method of analysis to support the identification of emerging technological paradigms, making use of established approaches such as technology forecasting and CFTP (Customer-Focused Technology Planning).