Simone Pinciolla
Analysis and evaluation of past tropical cyclone trends, assessments and simulations regarding a possible future scenario, using models provided by CMCC.
Rel. Andrea Antonio Gamba. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Physics Of Complex Systems (Fisica Dei Sistemi Complessi), 2025
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Abstract
A tropical cyclone (TC) is a rapidly rotating storm that develops over oceans at tropical latitudes and can vary in speed, size, and intensity. Together with other extreme events, their growing impact on society is a consequence of climate change, induced by natural forcings and human activity, mostly through emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that alter the chemistry of the atmosphere. This document presents one of the possible future scenarios concerning the evolution of TCs, using simulation ran by the CMCC-CM3-LT (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici – Climate Model version 3) model for the present (1980–2010) and future climate (2070–2100) according to the SSP5-8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway $\#$5) scenario.
The reliability of the data produced by CMCC-CM3-LT is confirmed by comparison with observational and reanalysis datasets
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