Razieh Meidanshahi
Proactive Database Size Forecasting for SQL Server instances: A Machine Learning Approach.
Rel. Andrea Bottino. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Ingegneria Informatica (Computer Engineering), 2025
Abstract
Efficient database size management is crucial for organizations relying on on-premise SQL Server databases. Unexpected database growth can lead to server space saturation, causing performance degradation, system downtime, and increased operational costs. This thesis presents a forecasting approach to predict database growth, enabling proactive resource allocation and preventing storage-related failures. The study begins by extracting databases hosted on the given SQL Server instance and retrieving historical row byte size data from the InfluxDB time-series database for the past year. The extracted data undergoes cleaning and transformation to prepare it for time-series forecasting using the SARIMAX (Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous factors) model SARIMAX is chosen over other time-series forecasting models due to its ability to handle seasonality, trends, and external influencing factors, making it well-suited for database growth predictions.
Unlike simpler models such as ARIMA, which assumes stationarity, SARIMAX accounts for seasonal fluctuations and the impact of external variables, ensuring more accurate long-term predictions
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