Riccardo Terzo
Novel framework for Bayesian inference of material properties of ablative thermal protection systems.
Rel. Domenic D'Ambrosio. Politecnico di Torino, Master of science program in Aerospace Engineering, 2024
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Abstract
The work performed in this thesis allows the assessment of PICA thermal conductivity ratio and cold wall stagnation point heat flux by harnessing the powerful tool of Bayesian Inference. As part of the inference framework, that has been implemented on MATLAB using UQLab, the McDougall thermal model has been used. Before implementing it in the framework, a study about the model precision (for the calculation of temperature histories at specific thermocouple locations) when varying mesh size and timestep has been performed. By exploring the uncertain nature of these parameters, the inference framework allowed the definition of the posterior distributions of α and q0, using available experimental results from (1).
Posterior distributions of the inferred parameters, obtained using some thermocouples, have then been used to estimate the temperature evolution in other thermocouples, in order to validate the posteriors previously calculated
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