Pierluigi Proietti
Learning strategies in Kelly's horse model.
Rel. Andrea Pagnani, Matteo Marsili. Politecnico di Torino, Master of science program in Physics Of Complex Systems, 2023
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| Abstract: |
We define Kelly's strategy for the horse race model, describing the concept of growth rate. We outline an adaptive strategy from Despons et al., in which the gambler uses Bayesian inference to try and learn the win probabilities of the horses. We implement a modified version of this strategy, using our knowledge of the payoffs. Moreover, we use a Bayesian model selection approach to the problem, in the framework of Haimovici et al. Lastly, we go back to the modified Bayesian inference approach and devise a strategy that aims to maximize a linear combination of the expected value and the variance of the growth rate. |
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| Relators: | Andrea Pagnani, Matteo Marsili |
| Academic year: | 2022/23 |
| Publication type: | Electronic |
| Number of Pages: | 35 |
| Subjects: | |
| Corso di laurea: | Master of science program in Physics Of Complex Systems |
| Classe di laurea: | New organization > Master science > LM-44 - MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR ENGINEERING |
| Aziende collaboratrici: | ICTP |
| URI: | http://webthesis.biblio.polito.it/id/eprint/27941 |
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