Commercial aviation will face demanding challenges in the near future. Sustainability both in environmental and economic terms requires technological changes. The purpose of the analysis is to identify through a structured method the most likely dominant design of aircraft powerplants in 2040. The main driver is an appropriate situation awareness of the context, beyond purely numerical data. The method is divided into three main phases. A qualitative analysis, with an overview on the competing present and future technologies and their variants. It also focusses on the market segments served, and on the complementary assets needed. A semi-quantitative analysis, that highlights the lead-lag correlations between each considered technology, and each respective core technology it is based on.