Assessment of Energy Consumption and Retrofit Strategies in residential buildings using Urban Energy Modeling: A comparative study of Lisbon and Florianópolis

Climate change and continuous urban development are increasingly affecting building energy consumption, underscoring the importance of reliable modeling approaches and targeted retrofit actions. This thesis develops a modeling framework designed to evaluate the energy performance of residential buildings in two distinct neighborhoods: one in Lisbon (Portugal) and another in Florianópolis (Brazil), selected for their contrasting climatic conditions. The study applies an Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) approach to simulate and analyze heating and cooling trends under different scenarios. In this work, several case studies were carried out through simulation. Buildings were modeled under three main conditions: the baseline scenario, which serves as the reference for comparison; the 2050 projection, used to assess the impact of climate change; and three retrofit strategies, improvements to roof, wall, and window insulation, aimed at determining their potential to reduce energy consumption and their economic feasibility. The results indicate that climate plays a decisive role in shaping energy consumption patterns. Buildings in Lisbon are predominantly heating-oriented, while those in Florianópolis exhibit higher cooling demands. Under future climate scenarios, both regions experience a decrease in heating needs and an increase in cooling requirements, reflecting a clear shift driven by rising temperatures. Among the examined interventions, roof insulation consistently provided the greatest benefits in both contexts by minimizing heat losses and enhancing thermal comfort. Wall and window retrofits proved less effective, being economically unfeasible in Florianópolis but still viable in Lisbon’s cooler climate. In summary, this research highlights the importance of climate-sensitive retrofit strategies and demonstrates how urban-scale energy modeling can serve as a valuable tool to support sustainable renovation planning in the context of future climate challenges.