The strategic transformation of outer space Economic, Geopolitics, and Future Implications

This thesis explores the evolution of outer space as a strategic domain. Once reserved for scientific exploration, space is now essential for technological development and increasingly congested. The advent of satellites has revolutionized telecommunications, while the decreasing cost of access to orbit has fostered a growing commercial sector, with key players such as SpaceX and OneWeb accelerating private involvement. For global powers, space represents a strategic priority, not just technologically, but geopolitically. Unlike the Cold War-era Moon race, which focused on peaceful goals, today’s advancements reflect a more competitive approach. The idea of space as a global commons is eroding, giving way to rivalry and national interests. This shift has led to the militarization and weaponization of space, from dual-use technologies to the development of anti-satellite (ASAT) and kinetic weapons, officially defensive, but raising global concerns over their real purpose. The thesis examines the growing relevance of the space domain through economic, strategic, and geopolitical lenses. Why are world powers investing so heavily in space, and what consequences arise from these choices? It begins by analyzing the evolution of the space sector and the rise of the space economy. Commercial applications, telecommunications, logistics, agritech, and Earth observation, highlight why states and companies seek access to space. This sets the stage for understanding how space has become a symbol of global influence. Case studies of emerging space powers are used to assess the increasingly military dimension of national space programs. The focus then shifts to the militarization of space, addressing the dual-use nature of many technologies, drivers of innovation that can also be weaponized. It explores the growing deployment of space weapons, officially defensive but with offensive implications. The war in Ukraine, particularly the use of satellite systems like Starlink, illustrates the rising involvement of private actors in modern conflicts. The strategic positioning of major players: China, the U.S., Russia, India, France, and Japan, is analyzed in light of this trend. The new race to the Moon, once scientific, now carries geopolitical weight. Lunar missions are viewed as tools of soft power and influence, shaping international hierarchies. This geopolitical shift is also evident in the legal domain. The polarization between the U.S. and its allies versus the Russia-China axis raises fundamental questions about future space governance. As tensions rise, the lack of a clear, shared regulatory framework becomes a growing challenge. In conclusion, the militarization of space has profound implications for global security and economic development. The use of private technologies in warfare, as seen in Ukraine, introduces ethical dilemmas. The return to the Moon, framed by strategic goals, underlines the need for updated, cooperative international rules to ensure space remains a sustainable and peaceful domain.