Strategic Responses of Global Powers to the Rise of LEO Mega-Constellations

In recent years, the emergence of low Earth orbit (LEO) mega-constellations has reshaped the strategic landscape of outer space. These large-scale satellite infrastructures are not only technological innovations but also instruments of economic influence, digital sovereignty, and geopolitical power. This thesis investigates how major global powers, the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union, have responded to the rise of LEO mega-constellations. The research introduces a framework based on two structural variables: the political regime type (democratic vs. authoritarian) and the level of market development (high vs. low). These variables are used to predict national strategies in space, resulting in a matrix of four ideal types: private sector leadership, development guidance, development collaboration, and development denial. Each case study evaluates a country’s political and economic structure and strategic posture. Findings show a strong alignment between predicted and actual behavior: the U.S. promotes commercial leadership through companies like SpaceX; China centralizes state-led deployment; Russia adopts a strategy of disruption rather than development; and the EU coordinates institutional collaboration through public investment and regulation. The thesis concludes that internal structural conditions shape national strategies in the evolving space domain. Policy recommendations are proposed for the European Union to enhance its strategic autonomy and industrial capacity, alongside reflections on the limitations of the study and directions for future research.