Assessment of the anthropic impact on the shoreline evolution in Lido di Jesolo from 1954 to 2024 and future trends using GIS

Coastal erosion is a significant challenge for coastal areas around the world, and Lido di Jesolo, one of the main seaside places in northern east of Italy, is not excluded. This thesis aims to analyse the changes of the coastline and the sediment dynamics in Lido di Jesolo area, both through historical data and a future projection model, considering the impact of urbanization. Firstly, the study focuses on the period from 1954 to 2024, based on seven images provided by the Veneto Region and extracted from Google Earth satellite images. Then, these images are used as the starting point for predictive models that estimate the possible position of the coastline in 2040 using the Leatherman method.  The morphological changes of the coastline over the years were mapped and analysed using the ArcGIS software, focusing on the areas of erosion and sedimentation. The analysis showed that artificial coastal structures, such as groynes and breakwaters, have significantly influenced sediment distribution along the coast. Specifically, these works have contributed to erosion in some areas and sedimentation in others, altering the natural dynamic equilibrium of the coastline.   The Leatherman method was used to evaluate the potential future developments of coastal erosion at Lido di Jesolo, accordingly with the future climate change scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This technique is used to determine the future coastline evolution connected to various scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in storm patterns.  The study also highlights the impact of the engineering works realized over time on erosive or sedimentary phenomena along the coast, analysing the urbanization coefficient. The quantitative analysis highlighted significant differences between the study zones.  Future projections indicate that the area west of the Piave River mouth is at high risk of severe erosion if no corrective interventions are implemented, potentially endangering infrastructure and residential areas.  The results suggest that coastal erosion could intensify in the future, endangering infrastructure and natural habitats, if no corrective interventions are implemented. Therefore, it is crucial to develop coastal management strategies that consider both the impact of existing engineering works and future climate projections, preserving the socio-economic value of coastal areas.