Modeling the thickness of glaciers with geophysical data constraints: an extensive application to the Val Ferret (Aosta Valley, NW Italy)

The retreat of Alpine glaciers is a clear indicator of climate change, with significant implications for hydrology, geomorphology, and local ecosystems. This study focuses on the glaciers of Val Ferret, located on the Italian side of the Mont Blanc massif, applying the GLATE (Glacier Thickness Estimation) model to estimate ice thickness distribution. The model is constrained using Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) data, improving the accuracy of thickness estimations compared to traditional empirical approaches. The GLATE model was applied to several glaciers in Val Ferret, including Pré de Bar, Grapillon, Planpincieux, Whymper Serac, Col del Gigante, and Toula glaciers. Results indicate significant spatial variability in ice thickness, with greater depths in accumulation zones and severe thinning in ablation areas, confirming the accelerated retreat of these glaciers. The integration of GPR field data allowed for model refinement, reducing uncertainty and enhancing the reliability of thickness estimations. A key aspect of the study is the evaluation of GPR data quality and spatial coverage, which play a fundamental role in achieving reliable model outputs. The analysis highlights that gaps or inaccuracies in GPR measurements can propagate errors in thickness estimations, especially in complex glacier geometries. The results emphasize that a denser and well-distributed GPR dataset significantly improves model calibration, reducing uncertainty in interpolations and ensuring better consistency between measured and estimated ice thickness. This underscores the necessity of comprehensive field surveys to enhance the robustness of numerical glacier models. While the study primarily focuses on glacier thickness estimation, it also briefly discusses the potential consequences of glacier retreat, such as impacts on hydrology and geomorphological stability. However, a deeper analysis of these aspects is suggested for future research. The findings underline the importance of continuous glacier monitoring, particularly through the integration of numerical modeling, geophysical surveys, and satellite observations. Future improvements to the model should focus on dynamic simulations and expanded field measurements to enhance predictions of glacier evolution in Val Ferret and similar Alpine regions.