Predicting habitat changes in the Tagus Estuary induced by climate change

This study examines the potential impacts of sea level rise and temperature increase, both consequences of climate change, on the salt marsh habitat of the Tagus estuary. The focus is on the common species Spartina maritima and its habitat suitability under future climate scenarios. The primary objective was to analyze the effects of a predictive model using a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), based on data labelled as the Reference Year, covering the period from October 2019 to September 2020. The HSI model was developed using MATLAB to assess changes in habitat suitability based on bathymetry, salinity and temperature data. Two future climate scenarios were considered, incorporating projected sea level and temperature rises. The results indicate that the Tagus estuary's salt marsh habitat is vulnerable to climate change impacts. While the estuary shows some adaptability, it is also susceptible to seasonal fluctuations that could accelerate habitat transformation and biodiversity loss.