The impact of climate variability on the Mediterranean agriculture: The case of tomatoes and cereals

The Mediterranean Sea Basin is recognized as a climate hotspot, primarily due to its vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. This region experiences warming trends compared to the global average, leading to increased evapotranspiration rates and significant alterations in agricultural water needs. Climate models project substantial shifts in precipitation patterns, including changes in seasonality and an increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts and heavy rainfall. These factors exacerbate existing challenges related to water scarcity, posing critical threats to agriculture, ecosystems, and socio-economic stability in the Mediterranean Basin. This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change and rainfall variability on the crop water use of tomato, maize, and wheat in the Mediterranean countries and in particular it provides a focus on Italy. Drawing from IPCC reports and regional meteorological data, the study uses a combination of QGIS spatial analysis and Python programming to analyze past climate records from 1990 to 2019, agricultural land use patterns, soil characteristics, and topography. This integrated approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of how changing climate conditions influence crop water demands across the region. The results of this study highlight significant impacts of altered precipitation regimes on agricultural water use, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies. By providing detailed insights into the dynamics of crop water requirements under evolving climatic conditions, the thesis contributes to enhancing agricultural resilience and ensuring food security amidst climate uncertainties in the Mediterranean Basin.