Energy interplay in the Mediterranean area in-between ecological transition and geopolitical criticalities

Within the general framework of the transformation of energy systems towards more sustainable solutions at international level, the Mediterranean area plays a particularly important role. The basin has the potential to emerge as a key player in the field of renewable energies, facilitated by innovative technological solutions that unveil new possibilities. The challenge is to balance the geopolitical criticalities of disruptive phenomena with the need to keep sustainability at the center of the policy framework, while maintaining security and equity. This study navigates the complex landscape of energy transition in the Mediterranean region, shedding light on the disparities between aspirations and achievements. Initially an overview of renewable energy technologies in the Mediterranean is provided, emphasizing the incongruities in renewable energy capacity between the region's shores. Through a meticulous mapping of installed RES across each country, and policies for hydrogen and alternative fuels, the thesis compares the current status, the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario at year 2030 and national objectives on renewables, dissecting the economic and social factors contributing to the uneven transition progress. Subsequently a focus on the natural gas supply system in the Mediterranean is proposed, since natural gas can play a transitional role in the shift towards renewables. The analysis encompasses the mapping of pipelines and liquified natural gas terminals and the future development of the infrastructure, studying the physical flows of gas imports for 2021, 2022, and 2023, both onshore and maritime. The evolution of the supply system, the presence of new corridors towards Mediterranean, Russia's role as gas provider, and the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on import quotas and storage levels are the main points examined. Finally, the pivotal role of security and geopolitical risks within the context of energy transition is underscored. An emphasis is placed on how wars and crises in the Mediterranean intersect with energy dynamics. The necessity of assessing geopolitical risks is addressed, developing through the examination of a set of indicators a risk model applied to a case study: evaluate the security and reliability level of gas supply from Algeria to Italy.