System Dynamics Modeling for UK PFI Programs: Exploring Key Drivers and Interactions

Governments globally have embraced Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to reduce fiscal burdens and transfer responsibilities to the private sector. However, the long-term viability of this approach remains uncertain due to social and economic limitations. To offer decision-makers involved in PPP initiatives worldwide with valuable insights for shaping their PPP programs, this thesis undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the lasting social and financial implications of the United Kingdom's Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and its subsequent iteration, PF2. The PFI and PF2 programs in the UK were chosen as the unit of analysis because they represent one of the largest PPP programs around the globe, encompassing a diverse portfolio of over 700 projects. By leveraging System Dynamics (SD), the study unveils the intricate interplay between PPP development, societal concerns, public policy, and financial constraints. Through the creation of SD causal-loop diagrams, the research elucidates the causal structures within the system and estimates the far-reaching financial effects of PPPs on both the government and society. These diagrams offer valuable insights into the complex dynamics of PPP projects and shed light on their impacts across various stakeholders. By providing evidence-based recommendations, this research endeavors to guide decision-makers in optimizing the outcomes of infrastructure portfolios in PPP projects and maximizing the enduring social and financial benefits derived from such collaborations. By facilitating informed decision-making and effective policy formulation, this research seeks to enhance the overall outcomes of PPP programs, not only within the United Kingdom but also across diverse nations. The findings and recommendations put forth in this study aim to enrich the understanding of PPP dynamics and provide governments with suitable policies to optimize the outcomes of infrastructure portfolios in PPP projects. This, in turn, ensures the long-term sustainability and triumph of these collaborative partnerships. Furthermore, this study evaluates potential policies geared towards enhancing the effectiveness of PPP programs. It acknowledges the dynamic nature of PPP projects and considers the multifaceted interactions among stakeholders, regulatory frameworks, and economic factors. Several challenges associated with PPPs are examined, including the intricate nature of these partnerships, potential cost overruns, and their social impact.