THE SEISMIC RISK IN A MEGA-CITY. Emergency planning in Istanbul IL RISCHIO SISMICO IN UNA MEGALOPOLI. La pianificazione dell’emergenza per Istanbul

LIST OF FIGURES. p.I

LIST OF TABLES. p.VII

CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION. p.1

1.1 Hypotheses. p. 2

1.2 Thesis‘ structure. p.3

CHAPTER 2 - THEORETICAL BACKGROUND. p.4

2.1 Natural disasters. p.4

2.1.1 Earthquakes. p.13

2.1.1.1 Predicting and assessing earthquakes. p.18

2.2 The risk. p.20

2.2.1 Seismic risk. p.30

2.2.1.1 Seismic hazard. p.31

2.2.1.2 Seismic vulnerability. p.33

CHAPTER 3 - THE GENERAL AND HISTORICAL BACKGROUND. p.37

3.1 Turkey. p.37

3.2 Istanbul. p.59

3.2.1 The history and development of Istanbul with a particular look at the Beyoğlu district. p.71

3.3 Natural disasters in Turkey. p.93

3.3.1 The major earthquakes in Istanbul since 1500 . p.101

3.3.2 Future earthquakes. p.120

CHAPTER 4 - SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT: THE CASE STUDY OF ISTANBUL. p.123

4.1 The framework of the case study area. p.124

4.2 Seismic risk assessment, theoretical method. p.147

4.2.1 Hazard scenarios for Istanbul and for the case study area. p.149

4.2.2 Vulnerabilities for Istanbul and for the case study area. p.152

4.2.2.1 Physical vulnerability. p.152

4.2.2.2 Functional vulnerability. p.162

4.2.2.3 Socio-demographic vulnerability. p.164

4.2.2.4 Economic vulnerability. p.168

4.2.3 Seismic risk assessment for Istanbul and for the case study area. p.170

4.3 Seismic risk assessment, experimental method. p.177

4.3.1 Vulnerability of the case study area‘s urban structure. p.179

4.3.1.1 Physical and systemic vulnerability in the case study area. p.179

4.3.1.2 Potentialities. p.196

4.3.1.3 Urban structure vulnerability assessment. p.200

4.3.2 Functional vulnerability of the case study area. p.203

4.3.3 Socio-demographic vulnerability in the case study area. p.205

4.3.3.1 Description of the exposed population. p.206

4.3.3.1.1 "Residents". p.206

4.3.3.1.2 "Offices worker and customers". p.210

4.3.3.1.3 "Services worker and customers". p.210

4.3.3.1.4 "Facilities worker and customers". p.210

4.3.3.1.5 "Restoration workers and customers". p.210

4.3.3.1.6 "Nightlife workers and customers". p.211

4.3.3.1.7 "Shopping workers and customers". p.211

4.3.3.1.8 "Tourists". p.211

4.3.3.2 The "temporal dynamism" of the exposed population categories. p.216

4.3.3.2.1 "Residents". p.219

4.3.3.2.2 "Offices worker and customers". p.220

4.3.3.2.3 "Services worker and customers". p.221

4.3.3.2.4 "Facilities workers and customers". p.222

4.3.3.2.5 "Restoration workers and customers" p.223

4.3.3.2.6 "Nightlife workers and customers". p.224

4.3.3.2.7 "Shopping workers and customers". p.225

4.3.3.2.8 "Tourists". p.226

4.3.3.2.9 Assessing the population exposed. p.228

4.3.3.3 Assessing the socio-demographic vulnerability. p.234

4.3.4 The economic fragility of the case study area. p.244

4.3.5 Seismic hazard in the case study area. p.245

4.3.6 Seismic risk assessment of the case study area. p.246

4.4 Concluding remarks. p.250

CHAPTER 5 - SOLUTIONS PROPOSED AND CONCLUSIONS. p.255

5.1 Turkish Civil Protection framework. p.256

5.2 Preparatory measures undertaken for Istanbul. p.257

5.3 Preparatory measures proposed for Istanbul. p.260

5.4 Discussion of the hypotheses mentioned in the introduction. p.269

5.5 Contribution of the research. p.270

APPENDIX A - MODIFIED MERCALLI, PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION AND REICTHER SCALES. p.272

APPENDIX B - INSPECTION-SURVEY‘S FORM USED. p.273

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Turkish Court of Accounts (2002), "How well is Istanbul Getting Prepared for the Earthquake?", available on: http://www.sayistay.gov.tr/english_tca/Performance/IstanbulEarthquake.pdf;

Turkish Statistical Institute (2008), "Addressed Based Population Registration System 2007. Population Census Results", available on: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?tb_id=39&ust_id=11;

Turkish Statistical Institute (2008), "İstatistik Göstergeler. Statistical Indicators. 1923-2007", Turkish Statistical Institute Printing Division, Ankara (Turkey);

Turkish Statistical Institute (2009), "Addressed Based Population Registration System 2008. Population Census Results", available on: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?tb_id=39&ust_id=11;

Turkish Statistical Institute (2009), "Türkiye İstatistik Yıllığı. Turkey‟s Statistical Yearbook. 2008", Turkish Statistical Institute Printing Division, Ankara (Turkey);

Turkish Statistical Institute (2010), "Addressed Based Population Registration System 2009. Population Census Results", available on: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?tb_id=39&ust_id=11;

Turkish Statistical Institute (2010), "Türkiye İstatistik Yıllığı. Turkey‟s Statistical Yearbook. 2009", Turkish Statistical Institute Printing Division, Ankara (Turkey);

Turkish Statistical Institute (2011), "Addressed Based Population Registration System 2010. Population Census Results", available on: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?tb_id=39&ust_id=11;

Turkish Statistical Institute (2012), "Addressed Based Population Registration System 2011. Population Census Results", available on: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?tb_id=39&ust_id=11;

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UNISDR (2009), "The Structure, Role and Mandate of Civil Protection in Disaster Risk Reduction for South Eastern Europe. South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme", United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Geneva (Switzerland), available on: http://www.unisdr.org/files/9346_Europe.pdf;

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WEBSITE CONSULTED

AKOM, Istanbul Disaster Coordination Center (Consulted on: June 27, 2012): http://www.ibb.gov.tr/sites/akom/Documents/AKOM_STUDIES_ON_DISASTER_PREPAREDNESS.pdf;

Beyoglu Municipality (Consulted on: March 22, 2012): http://en.beyoglu.bel.tr/;

Booking – an on-line reservation website (Consulted on: February 9, 2012): www.booking.com;

C.I.A. The World Factbook (Consulted on: March 22, 2012): https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tu.html;

Columbia University – Earth Institue (Consulted on: March 18, 2012): http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/tamam/tamam-background/the-north-anatolian-fault;

Engineering Consultancy Services (Consulted on: June 12, 2012): www.beca.com;

Ensure Project (Consulted on: April 22, 2012): http://www.ensureproject.eu/What%20is%20ensure_extended%20version.pdf;

European Environment Agency (Consulted on: June 12, 2012): http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer/countries/tr/soertopic_view?topic=land;

FAO (Consulted on: April 15, 2012): http://faostat.fao.org/site/550/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=550#ancor;

Fatih Municipality (Consulted on: June 12, 2012): http://www.fatih.bel.tr/changelang.asp?lang=2;

General Directorate of Civil Registration and Nationality (Consulted on: June 22, 2012): http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=10736;

Geographicus Fine Antique maps (Consulted on: April 12, 2012): http://www.geographicus.com/;

INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geologia e Vulcanologia / the Italian National Institute of Geology and Volcanology (Consulted on: March 29, 2012):

http://legacy.ingv.it/roma/attivita/sismologia/sismotettonica/sismomedi/medor.html;

International Monetary Fund (Consulted on: May 05, 2012): http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm;

International Federation of Surveyors (Consulted on: April 16, 2012): http://www.fig.net/pub/fig2006/papers/ts16/ts16_03_karaman_etal_0511.pdf;

Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (Consulted on: June 25, 2012): http://www.ibb.gov.tr/sites/akom/Documents/_root.swf;

New York Times (Consulted on: between April 02 and 28, 2012):

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/02/14/science/earth/022510_QUAKE_index.html;

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/02/14/science/earth/022510_QUAKE_2.html;

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/02/14/science/earth/022510_QUAKE_3.html;

www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/02/14/science/earth/022510_QUAKE_6.html);

Prevention Web (Consulted on: March 22, 2012): http://www.preventionweb.net/files/12840_anewchangeEN.pdf;

Protezione Civile /Italian Civil Protection (Consulted on: Jun 26, 2012): http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/cms/attach/liguria_linee_guida.pdf;

Sokrates Program “The Historical Jewels in our Region” (Consulted on: April, 02, 2012): http://sokrates.szm.com/turkey/country.html;

Turkish Disaster and Emercency Management Presidency (Consulted on: June 28, 2012): http://www.afad.gov.tr/Ingilizce_Site/index.html;

United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (Consulted on: April 10, 2012): http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/slabs.html;

University of Texas at Austin (Consulted on: March 22, 2012): http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/turkey.html;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): http://www.kanyak.com/seismic.html;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): http://istanbulgezentisi.blogspot.com/2010/07/cadde-i-kebir.html;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): http://maggieblanck.com/Azarian/Photos.html;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): http://www.kizilay.org.tr/english/index.php;

Blog containing pictures used in this research (Consulted on: April 28, 2012): www.painetworks.com;