Development of a method of analysis to identify emerging dominant designs in the aircraft powerplant industry.

Commercial aviation will face demanding challenges in the near future. Sustainability both in environmental and economic terms requires technological changes. The purpose of the analysis is to identify through a structured method the most likely dominant design of aircraft powerplants in 2040. The main driver is an appropriate situation awareness of the context, beyond purely numerical data. The method is divided into three main phases. A qualitative analysis, with an overview on the competing present and future technologies and their variants. It also focusses on the market segments served, and on the complementary assets needed. A semi-quantitative analysis, that highlights the lead-lag correlations between each considered technology, and each respective core technology it is based on. It evaluates then the degree of interaction each technology can show with the market. A quantitative analysis based on actual data about each technology to predict the trends of their performance and innovation curves. Qualitative and semi-quantitative analyses leverage on an adaptation of the CFTP technique, while quantitative analysis on the Technology Forecasting technique. Results suggest that once Hydrogen production and management technologies will be mature enough, they will allow liquid Hydrogen-based powerplants to become dominant, at least for the most relevant market segment in terms of traffic and emissions: operators interested in short to medium-range flights and low payload capacity.