Estimating e-commerce demand for last-mile delivery optimization through parcel locker

The widespread diffusion of the online channel in the retail marketplace is impacting considerably modern society in recent years. Given the growing demand, Business to Consumer (B2C) e-commerce entails a much higher complexity of the delivery process due to significant fragmentation of parcel shipments in the “last-mile”, especially in urban areas, where traffic and congestion problems are arising together with environmental issues. All these aspects are of high interest not only for companies - that want to maintain a high target service level for their customers - but also for public administrations, that aim to foresee the implications of this phenomenon and how to manage it properly. In this context, the purpose of the study is to investigate the potential of an alternative solution to the traditional home delivery, a self-collection service called "parcel locker". The research study is based on data gathered from an online survey submitted to a sample of residents living in the metropolitan area of Turin, Italy. An estimation of the willingness to buy online among different population segments will be provided by taking into account the main drivers arising from an extensive literature review. Then, e-commerce demand will be expressed in terms of quantity and spatial distribution. To conclude, the parcel locker’s potential to capture the actual demand will be assessed to determine the feasibility of the delivery solution under consideration.