Effect of electrification of the transport sector on the energy demand for the EUROfusion TIMES model

The thesis focuses on the update of the EUROFusion TIMES Model (ETM) demand-side, with special reference to the Road transport sector. The main target of the work is the forecast of the future European energy mix, considering the possible role of nuclear fusion power plants for electricity production, related to the constantly growing interest on electrification of the vehicle fleet, which appears like the most suitable strategy to reduce GHG emissions from transport (provided that this electricity is produced from low/zero emitting sources). In order to achieve this goal, the first step is the assessment of the present status of the vehicle usage. Indeed, the last version of the database included in the EUROFusion TIMES Model, dating from 2008, presents a lot of intolerable uncertainties and deficiencies, mainly related to the low technology readiness level of some of the technologies included in it. In particular, deep attention is paid to road transport, including passenger cars and light trucks, light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles, buses, two- and three-wheelers, with a special focus on Full-Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric vehicles, the ones requiring an increase in electricity production. This is fundamental for the re-running of the ETM code and the subsequent storyline and scenario analyses to find out which are the design choices that will allow the fusion technology to become competitive in the future European energy mix, in a sector which is, nowadays, increasingly oriented towards the use of electricity for the urgent environmental issues related with GHG emissions. Since economic and population development will influence our energy system as well as climate change issues, resource depletion, technological development, demand development or political commitments, basing on three storylines included in the model, a bunch of scenarios with different cost, consumption and emission trends up to the year 2100, under a set of constraints, are developed and analysed by means of the TIMES economic model generator in which ETM is implemented. The work is organised into 4 parts. In the Introduction, an overview of the ETM model is given; then, the attention is focused on the main object of the activity, the building of the Road transport sector database, based on the observation of cost and energy use characteristics of vehicles in the European market. Beyond that, a new method for the calculation of base year Road transport demand is proposed, even if the implementation in the model is subject to its re-calibration as a whole, but can be used as a yardstick to evaluate its performance. Finally, the updated inputs are provided to ETM and a scenario analysis can be performed, in order to identify the role of nuclear fusion in the European energy mix.