Parameterized fragility modeling for open type ports subjected to coastal hazards and infrastructure aging

Ports are often in areas prone to storm surge and flooding from severe storms as well as climate change effects, such as sea level rise. Although vulnerability of ports subjected to earthquakes has been widely studied, models that support risk assessment from coastal hazards, including hurricanes, are lacking. This study presents a methodology for fragility analysis of wharf/pier structures typical in port facilities that are subjected to hurricane-induced storm surge and wave loading. Such models enable future risk assessment of these structures when exposed to current or projected storm conditions. The proposed framework utilizes Monte Carlo simulation to estimate variability in loads, geometrical configurations, material properties and capacities associated with different failure modes. A detailed study focuses on aging and deterioration models, considering uniform and pitting corrosion and modifications in materials strength, given several exposure conditions under consideration. Then different statistical learning methods are applied to predict structural behavior and to derive parameterized fragility functions for ready application in regional risk assessment. Finally, the proposed framework is applied to case studies in the Houston Ship Channel, with simulated storms scenarios and realistic metrics.