Macroeconomic Implications of the Energy Transition: Combine bottom-up modelling of the energy transition with implications in terms of economic growth and employment

This thesis develops a comprehensive macroeconomic-energy model to determine two scenarios from Portugal by 2050: a Business-as-Usual and an Optimistic one aligned with the national climate roadmap RNC2050. It unifies socioeconomic drivers, such as human labour and capital, with energy system processes, using an exergy-based methodology that allows calculation of Total Factor Productivity and carbon emissions as endogenous outcomes. Through the integration of sectoral investments, renewable energy cost projections and end-use final exergy distribution by sectors, carriers and end-uses, the model estimates CO₂ emissions and carbon intensity for both scenarios. Outcomes show that although both scenarios predict decreasing emissions, however only the Optimistic Scenario comes approaches carbon neutrality, driven by widespread electrification, large-scale adoption of renewables and structural transformation of the economy. The RNC2050 comparison highlights both convergences and divergences, particularly concerning adding exergy-based TFP, endogenous capital dynamics and emissions accounting. The thesis also reflects on missing elements in both the RNC2050 and the model itself and overall, the findings highlight the importance of ambitious, comprehensive action to achieve a sustainable and economically sound transition.