Towards 100% renewable energy supply in Catalonia using scenario analysis

The exponential increase in carbon dioxide emissions and the now imminent depletion of fossil fuels put the issue of energy at the forefront with the aim of investigating possible alternatives to the unsustainable modern energy system. The end point is represented by an autonomous and smart energy system. Over the years, research and studies have increased confidence in achieving the goal of a national energy system without fossil fuels, in which renewable sources lead the entire energy supply. The current energy system is characterized by a simple configuration in which the energy flows from the generation point to the customers without interconnections between the different sector. The transition to the new energy supply can be possible with different steps that involves the increasing capacity of renewable sources, introduction of bioenergy and improvement in storage capacity to deal with intermittency of renewable energies. In this study will be analysed the possibility of Catalonia to achieve 100% of renewable energy supply modelling future scenarios in 2030 and 2050 in EnergyPlan. Starting from the reference scenario of Catalonia in 2019, several changes will be introduced in the model in order to achieve the cited goal. The validation of the reference scenario will be achieved comparing outputs from the model with the actual values, for instance, of emissions of carbon dioxide, electricity share of renewables, nuclear energy production and others. In scenario 2030, the changes refer to higher capacity of wind and solar installations, reduction of individual boilers with introduction of heat pumps capacity, increasing of electricity storage with V2G ( Vehicle to Grid). In 2050 scenario, instead, the renewable energy system was expected to be reached. The methodology followed for this scenario was related to the introduction of different kinds of storage (thermal, electric), electrolysers, absorbed heat pumps, bioenergy and waste incineration with the aim of 100% electrical share of RES and the replacement of fossil fuels. The results show satisfactory values emissions of carbon dioxide and renewable energy production but still high values of natural gas consumption. The difficulties found for the full replacement of natural gas are considered related to the assumption of analysing future scenarios considering the same demand of 2019. It has been demonstrated the importance and the need to reduce the energy demand to achieve the goals set for the transition to smart energy system. For this reason, future works are needed ,in which demand changes, land use study and further economic analysis are implemented to increase the knowledge and the possibility to make Catalonia 100% sustainable and autonomous in the energy sector.