In an increasingly globalized environment, vulnerabilities emerge from an increasingly interdependent and interconnected world, and risks are no exception: climate change is an example of how disasters can express themselves on a global scale and transfer rapidly from one sphere to another. Arisk offers itself as a solution by developing software with underlying algorithms that can measure any type of risk objectively and comparably over time and space. The final objective of the work is to analyze the correlation between hydrogeological risk and the financial performances of small and medium-sized enterprises, with a focus on wineries. This thesis covers only the first part of the overall work and aims to create accurate models for forecasting total annual rainfall.