Analysis of Direct Operating Costs estimation of a Supersonic point-to-point vehicle powered by liquid hydrogen

This thesis work focuses on the analysis of the direct operating costs of a supersonic civil transport aircraft powered by liquid hydrogen. As we know, the correct assessment of direct operating costs from the early stages of a space project is of primary importance, but this is neither easy nor immediate, since its accurate estimation requires the use of a substantial database not always available (especially for supersonic aircraft). In addition to this, it is also necessary to analyzed the impact that a new technology such as liquid hydrogen (a technology widely studied and debated and that will certainly be used on aircraft in the coming decades) has on costs. On the basis of this it is therefore necessary to develop and use a mathematical model of estimation of the costs that can be applied even when only a few data concerning the physical characteristics/performance of the aircraft are defined, the mission to be carried out and the economic scenario. For this reason, the thesis work has as a starting point the mathematical model for cost estimation developed by NASA in 1972 on which will be conducted appropriate analysis in order to be able to obtain a new updated model of cost estimation more in line with current times. In order to obtain clear information on the work carried out, as a first step, the typical life stages of an aerospace product will be illustrated and for each phase will be briefly described the cost items that characterize them. Subsequently, some historical and reference aspects will be reported regarding supersonic aircraft powered by traditional fuel and liquid hydrogen. In the latter case we will focus in particular on introducing the characteristics of GREEN CONCORDE, aircraft developed in advance during the course of "design of integrated aerospace systems" during the academic year 2019-2020 at the Polytechnic of Turin that will be used as a reference for the development of the case study. It will then be illustrated the mathematical model of estimation of direct operating costs developed by NASA on an ATA basis, which will serve as a basis for the realization of the new model of estimation. So, for each item present within the equations of the model will be conducted where necessary an in-depth analysis with the aim of updating the relevant equations so that the latter can provide estimation values that are more in line with current market values. Thanks to the implementation of the new estimation model within a MATLAB script will be seen is analyzed what are the results obtained from the case study referring to GREEN CONCORDE and its typical mission. They will be therefore shown and analyzed what are the relative direct costs in terms of $/block hours and the breakdowns of the various cost items within the Direct Operating Cost reporting the reasons that have led to those specific values. Subsequently, in order to validate these results and the model itself, different comparisons will be made, starting from the values obtained by the NASA model of departure (executed in a second script always with the same input values), to continue with the comparison with other categories of aeroplanes, with the current values of marker and finally compared to other possible future scenarios that significantly change the cost of fuel. In the end, for the completeness of the activities, it will be reported a method for the estimation of the indirect operating costs in order to estimate the total operating cost per flight and so succeed to estimate the ticket price