Analysis of the decarbonisation of the Italian energy system: modeling the long-term effects of Covid-19 on energy related behaviour

The restrictions imposed to contain the Covid-19 pandemic during 2020 and beyond have affected many aspects of daily life, some of these could have an impact on the future energy behaviour of the Italian citizens. This thesis aims to evaluate the effects of the change in behaviour due to the pandemic on the decarbonisation pathway of the Italian energy system, in the year 2040. The main tools used to carry out this analysis are Microsoft Excel, to elaborate the data from the literature, and the energy modeling software EnergyPLAN, to implement the scenarios. The historical energy trends of the Italian energy system from 2004 to 2019 are studied in the first part of this work, the aim is to get a general vision of the past on which to construct a coherent future. In addition, the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the energy demand and supply in 2020 are analyzed at different spatial scales, with a particular focus on the effects of remote working and the links between the pandemic crisis and the environmental crisis. The European and Italian energy policies, in particular, the ones that set the targets from 2020 to 2050, are then analyzed to set the main targets for the scenarios. In the next chapter a synthesis of the different energy models is carried out, focusing on the main characteristics of the software EnergyPLAN. In this chapter is also developed a Reference Energy Model for the year 2018 used to calibrate the software and to have a base year to compare the scenarios. Subsequently, a Base Scenario for 2040 is built. The main hypothesis on which the Base Scenario is made are that there was no Covid-19 pandemic, the Italian PNIEC (Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima) targets in 2030 are met and the full decarbonisation target is reached in 2050. To do so a complete scenario is carried out for 2030 to check the achievement of the PNIEC targets, while for 2050 the scenario is only partially developed to draw the trajectories from 2030 towards the decarbonisation. This is applied to all sectors, using as the main source the PNIEC for 2030 and sector studies for the period between 2030 and 2050. In this work, only technical simulations are implemented not considering the economic variables. In conclusion, the post-pandemic behaviour scenarios are developed. The main effects studied in this thesis are the increased diffusion of remote working and the increased citizens' awareness about the global crisis. The impacts of remote working are studied on the transport and buildings sectors. The possible effects of the increased awareness about the global crisis, and consequently the climate crisis, considered in this work, are a higher share of electric vehicles in personal transport, higher use of bikes for short trips, and a general increase in the residential sector efficiency