Analysis of the hydrogen supply chain and optimization of a case study in Italy

The urgency of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is becoming one of the most pressing issues of recent decades. The global attention on this problem leads to think about possible substitutes for fossil fuels in all sectors: from industrial to mobility. It is in this panorama of continuous innovation that hydrogen is gaining more and more importance. However, one of the biggest obstacles to its implementation is the lack of infrastructure. The objective of this Master Thesis is therefore to develop a model able to analyze the hydrogen supply chain and apply this model to a case study for Italy. The problem will be formulated as multi-period, mono-objective Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), implemented in the General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) environment using CPLEX as a solver. After an analysis of the hydrogen market a literature review on the hydrogen supply chain (HSC) is carried out. A study is then carried out on renewable sources in Italy aimed to understand which of them and in which quantities could be addressed to the green hydrogen production in the coming years. Finally, the case study is developed. First, the mono-optimization based on total cost minimization of the HSC is solved, resulting in a predominantly centralized chain that delivers compressed hydrogen most of the time at a cost ranging from 9.32 €/kg in 2025 to 4.63 €/kg in 2045. With this configuration, considering only CO2 emissions related to row materials (i.e. methane and electricity with different origins) the emissions related to the hydrogen production vary from 3,3 to 7,4 kgCO2-eq/kgH2. With the same hypothesis a second simulation has been run, having as objective function the minimization of GHG emissions. In this case, the supply chain structure is more centralized, presenting only compressed hydrogen, zero GHG emissions but higher costs: 14.91 €/kg in the first period and 8.91 €/kg in the last one. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out, increasing the demand for hydrogen compared to the first case, imposing cost minimization as the objective function. The structure obtained is the most centralized, exhibiting both liquid and compressed hydrogen. The costs are the lowest compared to all the other cases because the system has increased in size: in this case in fact it goes from 10,60 €/kg to 3,31 €/kg. The emissions per kg of hydrogen produced is almost constant through periods, with a value of 9 kgCO2-eq/kgH2.