Oscar Daniel Dufour
Decoding model for decision task under risk.
Rel. Alfredo Braunstein, Rava Azeredo Da Silveira. Politecnico di Torino, Corso di laurea magistrale in Physics Of Complex Systems (Fisica Dei Sistemi Complessi), 2021
|
Preview |
PDF (Tesi_di_laurea)
- Tesi
Licenza: Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
In decision making under risk, probability of each outcome is known by all decision-makers. This is the case for instance, when one wants to choose between equestrian bets. There is a gain associated with each horses and an odds. This odds represents the horse’s probability of winning. Historically, theoretical models assumed that decision makers were rational and therefore sought to maximize gain over the different bets. However, experiences have shown that human decision-maker deviates from rational choices. Different explanations have been proposed. First, a utility function was introduced which led to the so called ”expected utility theory.” A utility is assigned to each outcome depending on the subject.
This explained risk aversion ie the preference of a sure gain over a risky gain even if statically, the risky gain is more advantageous
Relatori
Tipo di pubblicazione
URI
![]() |
Modifica (riservato agli operatori) |
