Assessing the National Electricity Security in an Energy Transition perspective

As the increasing share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) gradually replaces energy production from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), the national energy system is unavoidably tackling an energy transition. As the role of energy is critical for countries’ prosperity, the energy transition is evaluated with respect to the Energy Trilemma, defined as the challenge of a secure, affordable and environmentally sustainable energy supply; therefore, the Energy Trilemma dimensions include Sustainability, Equity and Security. In this context, the definition of scientific methods to quantify the monitoring of the evolution of the energy transition is a topic of growing importance. However, as the Energy Trilemma dimensions are not uniquely defined or measurable, numerical indexes must be defined and aggregated for the purpose. Since a comprehensive analysis of the problem is beyond the scope of this document, the aim of the thesis is the definition of methodologies to quantify energy security, and specifically to define indexes for electricity security. Specifically, as the penetration of Variable Renewable Energy (wind and solar power, VRE) into power generation is expected to become more and more relevant, positive effects in terms of environmental sustainability and energy prices are expected; however, implications of high VRE shares include challenges to Electricity Security, as conventional generation from fossil fuels currently guarantees fundamental services to ensure correct system operation. The work is held in the context of a collaboration with ENEA (national agency for new technologies, energy and sustainable economic development), which is monitoring the evolution of the Energy Trilemma for the Italian energy system in its Quarterly Analysis of the National Energy System, computing a synthetic index (ISPRED). In the following, a framework for index computation is defined. Indexes and their aggregation are conceptually defined through the selection and calculation of relevant metrics; the computation process, including identification and referencing of public datasets (and single data inside them), their classification into structured property databases, data storage and public access through dedicated platform, is illustrated. Finally, electricity security for the physical system (generation and grid infrastructures) and the economic system (with focus on commodity markets) is considered with numerical examples.