The Development of Scenarios in the Diffusion of Blockchain-based Technologies

This research has been carried out by a student enrolled in a double degree program between the business school ESCP Europe and the Polytechnic of Turin. The engineering and business background of the facilitator allowed him to analyse the most important aspects of the technology both from a technical point of view and its implications on business and management practices. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the real impact of blockchain technology within the European Union with a particular focus on the innovation of corporate financing instruments that the technology could foster by 2030. There are in fact more and more speculation about the high technological potential that blockchain can reveal in the next future, but with growing expectations even the associated uncertainties are increasing. It is therefore essential the development of tools to address the changes that may arise in the coming years. The anticipation of technological progress and the generation of potential scenarios can help to understand the effects that could be caused by the adoption of blockchain and to carry out strategic planning based on the projections generated. This research proposes reliable scenarios on the diffusion of blockchain-based technologies, with particular attention to the implications and consequences of its adoption through the Delphi method, a multi-stage interactive forecasting technique based on the competences of experts to identify future potential developments and technological trends. In particular, this project followed the four-step procedure recommended by von der Gracht and Darkow (2010) and took advantage of a two-round consultation; the most likely scenarios have been developed on the basis of quantitative assessments of respondents as well as on their qualitative arguments.??