Giada Cerato
Analysis of climate model simulations for evaluating the impacts of AMOC weakening on the Atlantic tropical rainfall in CMIP6 scenario projections.
Rel. Jost-Diedrich Graf Von Hardenberg, Katinka Bellomo Repetto. Politecnico di Torino, Master of science program in Environmental And Land Engineering, 2022
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Abstract
Thanks to its large-scale teleconnections, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays an active role in shaping the Earth’s Climate. Many studies and observations indicate that in recent years the AMOC is undergoing a declining phase. However, although this weakening is supposed to have dramatic consequences all over the globe, regional impacts are still largely unknown. With this work I contribute to improve understanding of the climatic responses of tropical Atlantic precipitation and Hadley atmospheric circulation to an AMOC slowdown. To pursue this objective, I analyze and post-process an ensemble of future projections deriving from eighteen global climate models simulations that belong to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).
The analysis confirms the existence of a declining trend for the AMOC, but the large inter-model spread in the AMOC’s decline rate leads to a high level of uncertainty
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