Entrepreneurial Ecosystems in the European New Space Economy: A Quantitative Regional Analysis of Startup Emergence

In the last two decades the space sector went through a radical structural transformation. Its evolution went from a traditional model, dominated by public programs and research missions, to a more open, competitive and entrepreneurial configuration, commonly defined as the New Space Economy. This new phase is distinguished by the central role of private actors, startups and investors, that introduce technological and business innovation, redefining the entire sector value chain. In Europe, this evolution develops in a peculiar context, characterized by a complex multilevel governance that involves the European Union, the European Spatial Agency (ESA) and national space agencies. On one hand, the presence of these structures guarantees stability and coordination. On the other hand, it highlights some limits, such as the institutional fragmentation and the inferior availability of private capital compared to other international context, such as the US. In this scenery, regional dynamics play a crucial role in determining the territorial capability of generating and sustaining new space enterprises. This thesis investigates the relationships between regional ecosystems characteristics and elements with the diffusion of space startups in Europe. The objective is to identify local factors that foster the creation and growth of new ventures and to extend the paradigm of entrepreneurial ecosystem to the context of space economy. The analysis combines two theoretical perspectives: the literature on the transition toward the New Space Economy and that on entrepreneurial ecosystem, which interprets entrepreneurial activity as the result of complex interactions among actors, institutions and territorial resources. From the empirical point of view, a unique dataset with a panel structure was constructed, including European regions at the NUTS3 level within a ten-year interval: from 2013 to 2022. The collected information regard startups, economic factors, human capital, support infrastructures and scientific productivity indicators. The quantitative analysis is based on two main models: a negative binomial regression to explain the total number of space startups; and a linear regression to analyse the determinants of the funding raised by startups. The results show that the growth in the number of startups is closely associated with the overall quality of the regional space ecosystem and its main components. Among the main factors associated with a higher startups concentration are scientific activity, measured with the number of publications in the space domain; the availability of venture capital; the presence of ESA Business Incubation Centres and of major industry companies. These last three factors were found to be also determinants in the fundraising capability of startups, together with the number, in this case, of space-related patents. Overall, the research confirms the relevance of the regional context for the development of entrepreneurial activity and the validity of the entrepreneurial ecosystem framework as an interpretive key for the European New Space Economy, highlighting how the configuration of regional contexts directly influences the sector’s innovative capacity.